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A slow, multi-week macro lean plus today's expected volatility and event map. The lean is context, not a trade signal; the volatility and event timing are the actionable parts.
Macro lean (multi-week background): bearish (-0.274). Expected volatility today: normal (52th pctile · ~0.294% move).
| Time | Session | Ccy | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | Asia | FI | GDP Growth Rate | - |
| 05:00 | Asia | FI | Gross Domestic Product | - |
| 07:00 | London | AT | Gross Domestic Product | - |
| 07:00 | London | AT | GDP Growth Rate | - |
| 07:00 | London | ES | Inflation Rate | - |
| 07:00 | London | ES | Harmonised Inflation Rate | - |
| 07:00 | London | ES | Core CPI | - |
| 07:00 | London | ES | HICP | - |
| 07:00 | London | ES | CPI | - |
| 07:00 | London | ES | Core Inflation Rate | - |
| 07:00 | London | AT | Producer Price Index | - |
| 07:30 | London | NL | Gross Domestic Product | - |
| 07:30 | London | NL | GDP Growth Rate | - |
| 08:00 | London | DE | Saxony CPI | - |
| 08:00 | London | DE | Brandenburg CPI | - |
| 08:00 | London | DE | North Rhine Westphalia CPI | - |
| 08:00 | London | DE | Bavaria CPI | - |
| 08:00 | London | DE | Hesse CPI | - |
| 08:00 | London | DE | Baden Wuerttemberg CPI | - |
| 08:00 | London | DE | Gross Domestic Product | - |
Macro lean (multi-week background): bearish (-0.187). Expected volatility today: turbulent (85th pctile · ~1.263% move).
| Time | Session | Ccy | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | London | US | Core PCE Prices | HIGH |
| 12:30 | London | US | PCE Price Index | HIGH |
| 12:30 | London | US | Core PCE Price Index | HIGH |
| 12:30 | London | US | PCE Prices | HIGH |
| 12:30 | London | US | GDP Price Index | HIGH |
| 12:30 | London | US | Gross Domestic Product | HIGH |
| 12:30 | London | US | GDP Sales | HIGH |
| 12:30 | London | US | GDP Growth Rate | HIGH |
| 12:30 | London | US | Initial Jobless Claims | - |
| 12:30 | London | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | - |
Leans range (clear) — odds: range 41%, bear 26%, bull 21%, whipsaw 9%. The 80% cloud spans about 78 pips over 24h; that is the move-size to prepare for, and the most reliable part of this read. High-impact events in the window: Fed Conference Event, Fed Interest Rate Decision, Fed Meeting Event. Be ready for a scenario switch around: Fed Conference Event, Fed Interest Rate Decision, Fed Meeting Event. The lean is a probability tilt from similar past days, not a prediction.
Read of the day: live read — analog probabilities, refreshed intraday
Leans range (clear) — odds: range 44%, bull 19%, bear 18%, whipsaw 16%. The 80% cloud spans about 90 pips over 24h; that is the move-size to prepare for, and the most reliable part of this read. High-impact events in the window: BoE Gov Bailey Speech, BoE Interest Rate Decision, CPI, Core PCE Price Index, Core PCE Prices, GDP Growth Rate, GDP Price Index, GDP Sales, Gross Domestic Product, HICP, Harmonised Inflation Rate, Inflation Rate, Interest Rate Decision, MPC Meeting Minutes, PCE Price Index, PCE Prices. Be ready for a scenario switch around: BoE Gov Bailey Speech, BoE Interest Rate Decision, CPI, Core PCE Price Index, Core PCE Prices, GDP Growth Rate, GDP Price Index, GDP Sales, Gross Domestic Product, HICP, Harmonised Inflation Rate, Inflation Rate, Interest Rate Decision, MPC Meeting Minutes, PCE Price Index, PCE Prices. The lean is a probability tilt from similar past days, not a prediction.
Read of the day: live read — analog probabilities, refreshed intraday
Leans range (leaning) — odds: range 35%, bear 29%, bull 19%, whipsaw 15%. The 80% cloud spans about $105.3 over 24h; that is the move-size to prepare for, and the most reliable part of this read. High-impact events in the window: Fed Conference Event, Fed Interest Rate Decision, Fed Meeting Event. Be ready for a scenario switch around: Fed Conference Event, Fed Interest Rate Decision, Fed Meeting Event. The lean is a probability tilt from similar past days, not a prediction.
Read of the day: live read — analog probabilities, refreshed intraday
Leans bear (leaning) — odds: bear 34%, bull 28%, whipsaw 21%, range 14%. The 80% cloud spans about $162.7 over 24h; that is the move-size to prepare for, and the most reliable part of this read. High-impact events in the window: CPI, Core PCE Price Index, Core PCE Prices, GDP Growth Rate, GDP Price Index, GDP Sales, Gross Domestic Product, HICP, Harmonised Inflation Rate, Inflation Rate, PCE Price Index, PCE Prices. Be ready for a scenario switch around: CPI, Core PCE Price Index, Core PCE Prices, GDP Growth Rate, GDP Price Index, GDP Sales, Gross Domestic Product, HICP, Harmonised Inflation Rate, Inflation Rate, PCE Price Index, PCE Prices. The lean is a probability tilt from similar past days, not a prediction.
Read of the day: live read — analog probabilities, refreshed intraday
2026-07-22: predicted range (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-23: predicted range (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-24: predicted range (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-27: predicted range (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-28: predicted range (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-29: predicted range
2026-07-22: predicted range (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-23: predicted range (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-26: predicted range (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-27: predicted range (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-28: predicted range (ended outside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-29: predicted range
2026-07-22: predicted range (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-23: predicted range (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-24: predicted range (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-27: predicted range (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-28: predicted range (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-29: predicted range
2026-07-22: predicted bear (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-23: predicted bear (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-26: predicted bear (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-27: predicted bear (ended inside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-28: predicted bear (ended outside the 80% cloud); 2026-07-29: predicted bear
How the Gravity Cloud chart is built and how to read it.
The cloud is NOT a forecast of one price path. Each day at the 07:00 / 23:00 UTC checkpoint the model finds the historical days whose market state most resembles today (by scenario probabilities and market-memory context — the "Today resembles" list), then looks at what those analog days actually did over the following 24 hours.
- Bands (grey shading): quantiles of those analog paths. The OUTER band (p10–p90) holds about 80% of comparable historical outcomes; the INNER band (p25–p75) about 50%. The bands widen with time because uncertainty grows through the day. They are calibrated — historically the 80% band contains the real close roughly 83–92% of the time. This width is the honest, reliable output: it is the move-size to prepare for. - Median lines (coloured): the typical path of each scenario (bull / bear / range / whipsaw) among today's analog days. A line is only drawn when at least ~6 analog days ended in that scenario. A median is a representative route, not a prediction of THE path. - Branch-risk zones (purple = events, blue = session handoffs): the times when the active scenario historically changes most often — around scheduled high-impact events and Asia/London/NY opens. Around these, be ready for price to leave one cloud/median and join another. The bands already include event-day behaviour, so they are not widened further at events — the zones are the signal to watch, the band is the calibrated range. - Probabilities: the share of analog days that ended in each scenario. Treat them like weather odds — they carry small but real skill, not certainty. - White line: actual price so far. Dashed grey: the checkpoint price (zero line).
What to trust most: the range/volatility and the event timing. Direction is the hardest part and the probabilities are a lean, not a signal.