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A slow, multi-week macro lean plus today's expected volatility and event map. The lean is context, not a trade signal; the volatility and event timing are the actionable parts.
Macro lean (multi-week background): bullish (+0.322). Expected volatility today: calm (30th pctile · ~0.2% move).
| Time | Session | Ccy | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | Asia | FI | Consumer Confidence | - |
| 07:40 | London | EU | ECB Madrid Speech | - |
| 08:00 | London | AT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | - |
| 09:30 | London | EU | ECB Elderson Speech | - |
| 13:30 | New York | EU | ECB Lagarde Speech | HIGH |
| 13:30 | New York | nan | ECB President Lagarde Speaks | - |
| 14:30 | New York | US | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | HIGH |
| 17:25 | New York | US | Fed Cook Speech | - |
| 23:01 | Asia | IE | Consumer Confidence | - |
Macro lean (multi-week background): neutral / range (-0.024). Expected volatility today: turbulent (91th pctile · ~1.343% move).
| Time | Session | Ccy | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:40 | London | EU | ECB Madrid Speech | - |
| 14:30 | New York | US | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | HIGH |
| 17:25 | New York | US | Fed Cook Speech | - |
Most analogs stay range-bound — little clear direction — a strong tilt. Odds: range 47%, bear 25%, bull 23%, whipsaw 5%. Above normal: range 47% (usually 28%, +19 pts). Since last checkpoint: little change. The 80% cloud spans about 71 pips over 24h — the move-size to prepare for, and the most reliable part of this read. High-impact events in the window: Cash Rate, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, ECB Lagarde Speech, RBA Rate Statement. Be ready for a scenario switch around: Cash Rate, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, ECB Lagarde Speech, RBA Rate Statement. Probabilities are a tilt from similar past days, not a prediction.
How this read is made — Engine B: a v12 blended model, using the probability variant with the best out-of-sample calibration for this group. The 'similar days' shown are look-alikes by forecast, not the basis of the odds.
Read of the day: live read — analog probabilities, refreshed intraday
Most analogs stay range-bound — little clear direction — a notable tilt. Odds: range 54%, bear 24%, bull 11%, whipsaw 11%. Above normal: range 54% (usually 37%, +17 pts). Since last checkpoint: little change. The 80% cloud spans about 71 pips over 24h — the move-size to prepare for, and the most reliable part of this read. High-impact events in the window: Cash Rate, Dallas Fed Services Index, Harmonised Inflation Rate, Inflation Rate, RBA Rate Statement. Be ready for a scenario switch around: Cash Rate, Dallas Fed Services Index, Harmonised Inflation Rate, Inflation Rate, RBA Rate Statement. Probabilities are a tilt from similar past days, not a prediction.
How this read is made — Engine A: the outcome-weighted vote of the 60 most-similar past days by market state (closest days count most). Raw outcome mix of those 60: bull 7, bear 14, range 32, whipsaw 7. Distance-weighting turns that into the odds above — the nearest match, 2026-09-22 (bear), counts most.
Read of the day: live read — analog probabilities, refreshed intraday
Most analogs stay range-bound — little clear direction — a notable tilt. Odds: range 32%, bear 30%, whipsaw 24%, bull 15%. Above normal: bear 30% (usually 19%, +11 pts). Since last checkpoint: little change. The 80% cloud spans about $95.1 over 24h — the move-size to prepare for, and the most reliable part of this read. High-impact events in the window: Cash Rate, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, ECB Lagarde Speech, RBA Rate Statement. Be ready for a scenario switch around: Cash Rate, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, ECB Lagarde Speech, RBA Rate Statement. Probabilities are a tilt from similar past days, not a prediction.
How this read is made — Engine B: a v12 blended model, using the probability variant with the best out-of-sample calibration for this group. The 'similar days' shown are look-alikes by forecast, not the basis of the odds.
Read of the day: live read — analog probabilities, refreshed intraday
Most analogs lean down (bearish) — a notable tilt. Odds: bear 30%, bull 25%, whipsaw 23%, range 22%. Above normal: bear 30% (usually 19%, +11 pts). Since last checkpoint: little change. The 80% cloud spans about $161.5 over 24h — the move-size to prepare for, and the most reliable part of this read. High-impact events in the window: Cash Rate, Dallas Fed Services Index, Harmonised Inflation Rate, Inflation Rate, RBA Rate Statement. Be ready for a scenario switch around: Cash Rate, Dallas Fed Services Index, Harmonised Inflation Rate, Inflation Rate, RBA Rate Statement. Probabilities are a tilt from similar past days, not a prediction.
How this read is made — Engine A: the outcome-weighted vote of the 60 most-similar past days by market state (closest days count most). Raw outcome mix of those 60: bull 15, bear 18, range 13, whipsaw 14. Distance-weighting turns that into the odds above — the nearest match, 2026-09-27 (bear), counts most.
Read of the day: live read — analog probabilities, refreshed intraday
How each day resolved, and the probability the model had put on that actual outcome — vs its usual (trailing ~1y) level, the day before, and its recent trend.
How the Gravity Cloud chart is built and how to read it.
The cloud is NOT a forecast of one price path. Each day at the 07:00 / 23:00 UTC checkpoint the model finds the historical days whose market state most resembles today (by scenario probabilities and market-memory context — the "Today resembles" list), then looks at what those analog days actually did over the following 24 hours.
- Bands (grey shading): quantiles of those analog paths. The OUTER band (p10–p90) holds about 80% of comparable historical outcomes; the INNER band (p25–p75) about 50%. The bands widen with time because uncertainty grows through the day. They are calibrated — historically the 80% band contains the real close roughly 83–92% of the time. This width is the honest, reliable output: it is the move-size to prepare for. - Median lines (coloured): the typical path of each scenario (bull / bear / range / whipsaw) among today's analog days. A line is only drawn when at least ~6 analog days ended in that scenario. A median is a representative route, not a prediction of THE path. - Branch-risk zones (purple = events, blue = session handoffs): the times when the active scenario historically changes most often — around scheduled high-impact events and Asia/London/NY opens. Around these, be ready for price to leave one cloud/median and join another. The bands already include event-day behaviour, so they are not widened further at events — the zones are the signal to watch, the band is the calibrated range. - Probabilities: the share of analog days that ended in each scenario. Treat them like weather odds — they carry small but real skill, not certainty. - White line: actual price so far. Dashed grey: the checkpoint price (zero line).
What to trust most: the range/volatility and the event timing. Direction is the hardest part and the probabilities are a lean, not a signal.